The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) forecasts that global steel demand will grow by 0.3% this year to 1.72 billion tonnes.
In 2027, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.2% to 1.76 billion tonnes.
China’s steel demand will contract by -1.5% in 2026 as the housing market correction nears bottom. Infrastructure investment in the country is expected to increase this year, supported by local authorities’ efforts to support GDP growth. Steel demand in the country’s manufacturing sector will maintain moderate growth in 2026 as exports continue to expand. However, more challenging global trade conditions remain a significant risk and could potentially slow growth in the coming years.
In 2027, the association expects steel demand in China to remain largely unchanged from 2026 levels. The forecast is based on the assumption that the ongoing correction in the real estate sector will largely end by then, easing the severe downward pressure that has dominated the industry since 2021.
India maintains its position as the world’s fastest-growing major steel market, with demand expected to grow by 7.4% in 2026 and accelerate to 9.2% in 2027. This will provide ample potential across all key steel-consuming sectors. These include sustainable infrastructure-oriented construction and the automotive sector, supported by growing demand for freight.
Steel demand growth in emerging markets (excluding China) is set to slow to 2.5% in 2026, down significantly from the roughly 5% annual growth seen in recent years. This will be driven mainly by a sharp contraction in the Middle East. The outlook for 2027 is more optimistic, with growth expected to recover to 5.1%.
Steel demand in developed markets grew by 0.2% in 2025, ending three years of consecutive declines since 2021. Worldsteel expects this stabilization to pave the way for a gradual recovery of 1% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027.
However, market volume last year remained around 60 million tonnes (15%) below 2017-2018 levels, suggesting that a full return to pre-crisis volumes is still a long-term goal.
The association forecasts demand in the EU+UK region to grow by 1.3% in 2026 and 3% in 2027. The long-awaited recovery in the European Union reflects the impact of increased infrastructure and defence spending on the continent, combined with expected improvements in macroeconomic conditions such as rising real household incomes.
However, the region’s high exposure to energy price shocks remains a significant downside risk in 2026.
Steel demand in the United States is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, driven by strong, technology-driven, and politically supported private sector investment and continued public infrastructure spending. A healthy recovery in the housing sector is also expected, but its pace is likely to remain limited by structural issues such as rising material costs and high mortgage rates.
Source: https://agronews.ua/news/globalnyj-popyt-na-stal-zroste-na-03-u-2026-roczi-worldsteel/
