Last week, from May 24 to 31, 2025, global iron ore prices showed a downward trend. On the Dalian Exchange, quotes fell by 2.1% to $97.65/t, and on the Singapore Exchange, by 2% to $96.25/t. This trend continued the general pressure caused by weakening demand from China, a key player in the iron ore consumption market.During the week, market sentiment was determined by several main factors. First of all, investors reacted to the decline in demand for steel in China, which is associated with the crisis in the construction sector, as well as the general economic slowdown. A number of Chinese steelmakers are facing losses, which is why they are forced to limit production volumes, which, in turn, reduces demand for ore.In the middle of the week, additional pressure on the market was created by rumors of possible new restrictions on steel production in China, which further worsened traders' expectations. An additional factor of uncertainty was the geopolitical situation: the announcement of the resumption of increased tariffs in the US on imported steel and aluminum raised concerns about the further prospects of global trade. Although at the end of the week, some improvement in sentiment was brought by the news of a temporary blocking of these tariffs by a US court decision, this was not enough to compensate for the overall weekly decline.
As a result, in May, the supply of iron ore on the Dalian Exchange increased by 0.2%, while in Singapore it decreased by 2.1%, which indicates a heterogeneous situation in logistics and demand.In the near term, the market remains under pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty, and traders expect further volatility. Unless the situation in the Chinese construction sector improves and the expected launch of the large Simandou deposit in Guinea is postponed, prices may continue to decline. At the same time, there is potential for corrections on the horizon if the Chinese government succeeds in stimulating demand. In the short term, prices are likely to fluctuate in the range of $90-100/t.As reported by GMK Center, Moody’s expects iron ore prices to remain at $80-100/t over the next 12-18 months. This forecast is due to weak demand from China and high supply on the global market.BMI Country Risk and Industry Research analysts voiced a similar view. They maintain their forecast for the average annual price for 2025 at $100/t, although they acknowledge the pressure from weak demand.
Source: https://gmk.center/ua/news/cini-na-zaliznu-rudu-minulogo-tizhnya-znizilis-na-2/
